NumberResearchExhaust forecast revisions
How NANPA's official exhaust projections move between vintages · 6 vintages (2023.2 → 2026.1) · latest 2026.1
NANPA publishes an NPA exhaust projection roughly twice a year. A single projection is a snapshot; the interesting signal is how each area code's projected exhaust moves from one vintage to the next. We track all 6 vintages in one file and compute the revision — in quarters — for every area code. This is a derived analysis NANPA does not publish itself.
Most forecasts moved later this cycle — consistent with pooling, code reclamation and returns recovering capacity. Forecasts pulled earlier are the ones worth watching: they signal demand outpacing the prior estimate.
Biggest deferrals
Forecasts pushed the furthest into the future — usually capacity recovered (block returns, reclamation)| Area code(s) | Location | New forecast | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|
| 334/483 | Alabama | 3Q 2064 | +153Q (38 yr later) |
| 724/878 | Pennsylvania | 2Q 2072 | +126Q (32 yr later) |
| 985 | Louisiana | 2Q 2103 | +83Q (21 yr later) |
| 312/872 | Illinois | 1Q 2049 | +68Q (17 yr later) |
| 772 | Florida | 3Q 2102 | +64Q (16 yr later) |
| 773/872 | Illinois | 4Q 2046 | +63Q (16 yr later) |
| 202/771 | District of Columbia | 3Q 2088 | +60Q (15 yr later) |
| 318/457 | Louisiana | 3Q 2095 | +55Q (14 yr later) |
| 860/959 | Connecticut | 1Q 2091 | +54Q (14 yr later) |
| 830 | Texas | 4Q 2073 | +50Q (13 yr later) |
Biggest accelerations (near-term)
Forecasts pulled earlier, exhaust by 2045 — the decision-relevant movers| Area code(s) | Location | New forecast | Moved |
|---|---|---|---|
| 306/474/639 | Canada | 2Q 2032 | -20Q (5 yr earlier) |
| 204/431/584 | Canada | 3Q 2035 | -19Q (5 yr earlier) |
| 425 | Washington | 1Q 2044 | -14Q (4 yr earlier) |
| 928 | Arizona | 3Q 2034 | -13Q (3 yr earlier) |
| 236/250/257/604/672/778 | Canada | 4Q 2031 | -10Q (3 yr earlier) |
| 249/683/705 | Canada | 3Q 2033 | -10Q (3 yr earlier) |
| 508/774 | Massachusetts | 4Q 2045 | -10Q (3 yr earlier) |
| 216 | Ohio | 2Q 2044 | -8Q (2 yr earlier) |
| 782/902 | Canada | 1Q 2029 | -8Q (2 yr earlier) |
| 343/613/753 | Canada | 3Q 2034 | -7Q (2 yr earlier) |
Near-term watch list
Area codes projected to exhaust by 2035, with the latest revision direction| Area code(s) | Location | Projected exhaust | Latest revision |
|---|---|---|---|
| 347/718/917/929 | New York | 3Q 2027 | unchanged |
| 657/714 | California | 2Q 2028 | +2Q later |
| 912 | Georgia | 2Q 2028 | +1Q later |
| 367/418/581 | Canada | 1Q 2029 | unchanged |
| 368/403/587/780/825 | Canada | 1Q 2029 | +3Q later |
| 502 | Kentucky | 1Q 2029 | +3Q later |
| 782/902 | Canada | 1Q 2029 | -8Q earlier |
| 828 | North Carolina | 2Q 2029 | +3Q later |
| 956 | Texas | 2Q 2029 | +1Q later |
| 509 | Washington | 3Q 2029 | +2Q later |
| 580 | Oklahoma | 3Q 2029 | +1Q later |
| 949 | California | 3Q 2029 | -1Q earlier |
| 229 | Georgia | 4Q 2029 | unchanged |
| 289/365/742/905 | Canada | 1Q 2030 | -1Q earlier |
| 626 | California | 1Q 2030 | +4Q later |
| 352 | Florida | 3Q 2030 | +3Q later |
| 252 | North Carolina | 1Q 2031 | +3Q later |
| 562 | California | 1Q 2031 | +2Q later |
| 571/703 | Virginia | 1Q 2031 | +2Q later |
| 505 | New Mexico | 3Q 2031 | +4Q later |
How to read this. Projections are to quarter precision. Near-term forecasts (this decade) are decision-relevant; far-future estimates beyond ~2050 are inherently noisy and large swings between them mean little. A projected exhaust date is NANPA's, computed from carrier forecasts, pooling behavior and assignment history — not a guarantee, and relief planning can begin well before the projected date.
Source: NANPA NPA Exhaust Projections (all 6 vintages in the current file), Tier A primary source, recomputed on every import. The full per-area-code revision series across every vintage is available as the member dataset. Method: methodology.